New research based on a novel mathematical model predicts that a wave of drug-resistant HIV strains will emerge in San Francisco within the next five years. These strains could prove disastrous by hindering control of the HIV pandemic.
In a study published Jan. 14 on the website of the journal Science, researchers from the Semel Institute for Neuroscience and Human Behavior at UCLA and the University of California, San Francisco’s HIV AIDS Program at San Francisco General Hospital, developed a complex network model that tracks the transmission of multiple strains of HIV.
The model can be used to predict drug resistance in any setting where individuals are treated for HIV infection. While in this case it was applied to San Francisco, the researchers found that the drug-resistant strains emerging in that city are also very likely to emerge in many African countries where treatment is just beginning.
The model showed that surprisingly many of the drug-resistant HIV strains that have evolved over the past last 10 years in San Francisco are much more transmissible than had been previously thought. The researchers predict these strains are likely to cause a new wave of drug resistance within the next five years.
“This isn’t just about San Francisco,” said senior author Sally Blower, director of UCLA’s Center for Biomedical Modeling and a member of the UCLA AIDS Institute. “It’s basically about many other communities in resource-rich countries and has significant implications for global health. San Francisco is like the canary in the mine. In fact, the most significant implications of our work are for countries where treatment is just being rolled out.”
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